Fire EruptingTier 2
at Michigan ALC Regionals
decks
3
(7.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-9-1
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1230
· median 1213
· range 1172–1305
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1082
Q1 1179
Q3 1350
1637
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.7% | -15.1 |
| Water Allies | 13.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.4% | -3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Rogue | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.2 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
